Tuesday, July 17, 2007

The Coming Market Correction

I'm calling it right now:

So the Dow hit 14,000 a couple of times today. The exuberance in the stock market hides the reality that a correction is in the works, a major one probably in September or October.

Not that I have any evidence to back it up, but there is this:

The subprime mortgage market collapse.

The weakening dollar versus the Euro.

History: see Black Monday, Black Tuesday, and Black Thursday.

Black Monday is the name given to Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell dramatically, and on which similar enormous drops occurred across the world. By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. (The terms Black Monday and Black Tuesday are also applied to October 28 and 29, 1929, which occurred after Black Thursday on October 24, which started the Stock Market Crash of 1929.)
Where this happened:

After an amazing five-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) increase in value fivefold, prices peaked at 381.17 on September
, 1929. The market then fell sharply for a month, losing 17% of its value on the initial leg down. Prices then recovered more than half of the losses over the next week, only to turn back down immediately afterwards. The decline then accelerated into the so-called "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929. A record number of 12.9
million shares were traded on that day.

Better get your shit ready.

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