Counting the Votes in Washington

Talking Points Memo is all over what's going on in Washington State emphasis is mine (actually just read the whole thing it's quite tasty):

Late Update: It seems that Washington State GOP chair Luke Esser spent most of the day avoiding calls from the Huckabee campaign. And when he finally got back to them he told a lawyer for Huckabee's campaign that they'd probably count the rest of the votes some time next week. When the lawyer, Lauren Huckabee, the candidate's daughter-in-law, requested that a Huckabee lawyer be present when the remaining votes were counted, Esser hung up on her. Before the hang up, Huckabee also asked Esser about the DIY statistical analysis he did to conclude that he should call the race (Esser's expertise in statistics apparently stems from previous work as a state prosectur and a sports writer). Was there an analysis of what precincts the remaining votes came from? According to Huck campaign manager Ed Rollins, Esser admitted that he didn't which precincts the remaining votes came from.

WTF?

I'm Calling Shenanigans Everywhere!!

UPDATE: Here's an email from the Washington State meetup coordinator for Ron Paul via the Ron Paul Warroom:

Hello everyone,
By our very preliminary count from you reports it is looking like we have at least twice the delegates as the other candidates!!
For this day and until the count shows otherwise I want you to congratulate yourselves for WINNING Washington State for Ron Paul!!
I wish I could share every single story I have heard over the past few days and all the happy reports from Ron Paul enclaves in WA towns I have never even heard of!
Please know this…the National Campaign is seeing these kind of successes all over the country…Every day that goes by we have new supporters and new contributers. I can’t believe I am saying this…I thought certainly I would sleep for 4 days once the 9th was over…but I am already so excited to prepare for our County Conventions!! The next few weeks are going to be very important…There were stories from almost every precinct about Huckabee and Romney voters changing their support to Ron Paul. Unfortunately some of the biggest threats to the Freedom Revolution can still come from within…our own perceptions…please read Ron’s letter again until you see the part that states he we are going to the National Convention! You know things have changed every day in this campaign with new information and new victories changing the course…now we have given him Washington and made the road to the Minneapolis a lot more golden!!
I will update you all when we get more final results…
You all did a wonderful job. Just wonderful.

Thank you for all you do!
Maureen McMahan Moore
Washington State Coordinator
Ron Paul 2008
425-345-4913

Picked up this story from Fox Via Michelle Malkin:

Fox News has learned that the Huckabee campaign has called for a “full investigation” into the Washington State Caucus results, and are sending campaign lawyers to the state to help in that pursuit. Ed Rollins, Huckabee campaign chairman, directly challenged Washington State GOP Chairman Luke Essers move in anounncing that John McCain had won the tight race with only 87.2 percent of the votes counted.

“The chairman showed very bad judgment in stopping the voting last night when announcing John McCain had won, when there was less that a 200 vote margin between the two candidates,” Rollins told Fox in an exclusive interview.” You never announce a vote, in my 40 years of politics I have never know anybody to announce a vote count before the vote is counted.”

You go Huck, rage against the machine!!

Seriously, though, what isn't being mentioned in the MSM and I'm surprised that the blogosphere hasn't picked up on it yet, is that in Washington State, the process is a wee bit quirky. Pilfered from the Daily Dose and highlighted for your convenience:

With 87% of precincts reporting, Ron Paul has won 21% of the vote in the Washington state straw poll, a strong third-place finish just a few points behind Huckabee (24%) and McCain (26%). The results from the remaining 13% of precincts may change things a little. But even when 100% of the straw poll results are counted, that won’t be the full story. What matters most are the delegates, and in several parts of the state Ron Paul has been winning more delegates than the straw poll results would suggest. We’ve seen this happen in several states: supporters of other candidates show up, vote in the straw poll, then leave — while Ron Paul supporters stay and vote in the delegate selection process. We’ve won delegates in precincts where we haven’t won the straw poll.

I do have a horse in this race still, so take this with a grain of salt. But IMO, the reason for the delay in the counting has to do more with the presence of the "uncommitted" delegates that were elected during the caucus, than the straw polling results that the MSM are reporting. That uncommitted number stands at 30 percent. From ronpaulforums (once again, caveat emptor, but it is an eyewitness account):

We won 21% (of the preference poll) in precincts where it wouldn't hurt us to be obvious for Ron Paul, or where those who showed up were likely more socially bold enough to either hold their own or build bridges. However, much of the uncommitted vote is ours because some volunteers and staff were telling them to go undeclared if they were unsure or weren't the type to haggle.

It has always been about delegates for the Paul campaign, and in this case, I think that McCain and Huck may be in for a surprise in Washington State.

The Crossed Pond: Primary Rundown

One thing I know for sure after today's voting:

On the Dems side, John Edwards should pack it up. It's down to Obama and Hillary with Hillary a little ahead on the momentum.

Today's primary contests in Nevada and South Carolina courtesy of Brad at The Crossed Pond:

For the Republicans, Nevada was weirdly uncontested, so Romney gets crowing rights and an impression of continued viability basically handed to him by his opponents. I think part of what has left this Republican field so wide open is the terror of ALL the candidate to even compete in states that aren’t already in their pocket. So they essentially get divvied up before voting even begins. The only people even appearing to run national campaigns at this point are McCain and Huckabee, which is why they’re winning. In any event, Romney gets a boost and said impression of continued viability from Nevada, enough so that he can probably count on being the third man in the race going into February 5th.

The whole analysis is here

What is missing in most of the MSM and the Pajamas Media Blogosphere coverage that Brad does talk about is Ron Paul's second place showing in Nevada and the demographics that go along with it:

It’s a little unfair for people to mitigate the showing by saying the rest of the candidates didn’t campaign there, as it’s not like John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, or Fred Thompson are nobodies that have to shake a lot of hands to be viable anywhere. Ron legitimately beat them here, and now HE gets to remind dismissive interviewers that he has beaten at least once every candidate in this race, and along with a national 4th place showing, has a small but existent cache of delegates (actually, there are a lot of reports coming out from Nevada that Ron may have actually done a lot better with the delegates than with the preference polling, and though it’s not being reported, he could well walk away with half of the delegates out of Nevada, which remember has more than South Carolina; it could turn out that Ron Paul comes in third today on the delegate count), and that his support isn’t large, but it’s not shallow or regional either.

That said, it also indicates that even in a field which his opponents very publicly pass on, Ron can’t break to 20%, meaning he’s running less against his opponents than against his own glass ceiling. Of course the flipside of that is even WITH his opponents in the race he STILL gets comparable results, which is interesting in its own right. In any case, he comes out of Nevada with an underreported silver medal that nevertheless gives him bragging rights and a bit of righteous credibility from now on. His campaign is legitimately more viable than Fred Thompson’s, John Edwards’, and, I would argue, Rudy Giuliani. Which is not to say Paul is particularly viable (he’s not, for the nomination), but he is JUST as viable as those other guys.

The cross-tabs are interesting also. Ron won—outright won—the independent vote (only 12% in this race), which is what pushed him past McCain (who is no slouch among independents). The only other demographic he outright carried was those who identify as having no religion. But most interesting to me is he continues to get about 20% of the under-30 vote in every single voting state, which is providing him his engine of vote-getting. When a party that is having a lot of problems staying viable in the face of shifting demographics, and which is in large part bleeding potential support, in particular younger voters, having this fly on the wall candidate who is nevertheless able to mobilize the youth of the GOP in a way nobody else this cycle is ought to be something the Republican party pays attention to.

Could Dr. Paul be the only man who can save America the party? The GOP has been in freefall since it became the party of big government and foreign interventionism. All of the other candidates (save Fred!) have nothing to offer but more of the same. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee offer nothing but a 3rd term for Bush IMO. Ron Paul and to a limited extent Fred have a fundamentally different message than the "heroic conservatism" garbage of the others. But Thompson is most likely out with a poor 3rd place showing in SC.

Other thoughts:

What will be interesting to see is who bails out on the race because of money. Fundraising comes into play with Florida and Uber-Tuesday coming up. Pretty much all of the GOP (except Romney) are going to have to pick and choose where to campaign.

Will the history of the winner of South Carolina winning the GOP nomination hold? For all that is holy in this world I hope not. I don't know what I'm going to do if McCain gets the nomination. I can't vote for him.

Rudy is still in this race, isn't he? He is going to look like either a genius or the biggest dope if Florida doesn't come through for him. According to the NYT article linked above, he's running short on cash also. Where the heck did all his money go? It doesn't seem like he's been campaigning anywhere.

The Weekly Buchanan: Subprime Nation

UPDATE - It looks like the Asian Markets are starting to feel the effects of recession fears in the United States - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down 4 percent.

Pat is on fire this week:

Since it began to give credit ratings to nations in 1917, Moody's has rated the United States triple-A. U.S. Treasury bonds have been seen as the most secure investment on earth. When crises erupt, nervous money seeks out the world's great safe harbor, the United States. That reputation is now in peril.

Last week, Moody's warned that if the United States fails to rein in the soaring cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the nation's credit rating will be down-graded within a decade.

Our political parties seem oblivious. Republicans, save Ron Paul, are all promising to expand the U.S. military and maintain all of our worldwide commitments to defend and subsidize scores of nations.

It's not that they are oblivious Pat. It's that their world view is such that preserving and strengthening the status quo can only involve the continual expansion of government. Even among the GOP candidates, except for Paul and Fred (to a much lesser degree), the idea of reducing bureaucratic interventionism is remarkably absent in word (McCain, Huckabee) and deed (Huckabee, Romney, and Rudy).

The Early Results in NH are in: McCain and Obama win

From ABC:

Residents of two tiny towns stayed up late to give Barack Obama and John McCain early victories in the New Hampshire presidential primary.

Voters in two small New Hampshire villages, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, cast the initial ballots just after midnight Tuesday.

In Hart's Location, Democrat Obama received nine votes, Hillary Rodham Clinton received three and John Edwards received one. On the Republican side, McCain received six, Mike Huckabee received five, Ron Paul received four and Mitt Romney one.

Baby Jesus

Update and BUMP: In keeping with CMStrapz comment, RightwingSparkle has this post:

According to the women security guard who shot the shooter of the Church in Colorado Springs yesterday, Jesus was in her gun.

Given that Mike Huckabee is a man of the church, his response to this high schooler's question is interesting:



Wasn't Jesus a man when he performed that particular miracle? Maybe Huckabee just likes Baby Jesus, like this guy:



Pilfered the Huck clip from lewrockwell.com

Ron Paul on the Religious Litmus Test

Pilfered from RedStateEclectic:

Howard Fineman of Newsweek interviews Ron Paul on Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee



More to come, I'll post as I find them.

Mike Huckabee

Given that Mike Huckabee is, according to one poll, leading in Iowa, and since I'm not really enamored with Huckabee. I thought I would post throw this bit up about Huck by George Will:

Mike Huckabee's candidacy rests on serial non sequiturs: I am a Christian, therefore I am a conservative, therefore whatever I have done or propose to do with "compassionate," meaning enlarged, government is conservatism. And by the way, anything I denote as a "moral" issue is beyond debate other than by the uncaring forces of greed.

Further down:

Huckabee combines pure moralism with incoherent populism: He wants Washington to impose a nationwide ban on smoking in public, show more solicitude for Americans of modest means and impose more protectionism, thereby raising the cost of living for Americans of modest means.

Then there's this (pilfered from Hotair)

Eight solid minutes of video here and the closest we come to a specific reason is that Huck has “integrity” and could be “the people’s president.” Didn’t he read his own WND column?

Huckabee vs. Paul

Jonah Goldberg on C-span talking about his article earlier this week on what's wrong with Mike Huckabee, and why Ron Paul isn't the Jew-hating, anti-Israel, neo-nazi, 9/11 truther that his attackers say that he is. I've heard that Dr. Paul eats babies for breakfast. True story!

The Chattering Classes are Starting to Understand

Over at RedstateEclectic, Laura makes the observation that the MSM (well, Jonah Goldberg of National Review, and Ross Douthat at The Atlantic) are finally starting to get what Ron Paul is about:

For me, the bottom line is this--there are now folks in the "mainstream" media who are recognizing that while Ron Paul may be saying something "different", what he's saying and the way he says it isn't nearly as bizarre as some have sometimes suggested.

Which is exactly what I've been saying. It's good to see Goldberg finally acknowledge that (and get a couple of licks on Huckabee as well, Chuck Norris be damned).

Ron Paul Supporter Spotlight

300 with Ron Paul. This made me laugh because it's so over the top.



Meanwhile, Conservative Belle has Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris in their
first commercial together. Admittedly, I found it quite entertaining.

Five Degrees of Moderate

Not quite siren worthy according to Drudge but a big deal to the "Values Voters" whom Huckabee has been gaining endorsements and momentum. Pilfered from the WSJ:

Phyllis Schlafly, president of the national Eagle Forum, is even more blunt. "He (Huckabee) destroyed the conservative movement in Arkansas, and left the Republican Party a shambles," she says. "Yet some of the same evangelicals who sold us on George W. Bush as a 'compassionate conservative' are now trying to sell us on Mike Huckabee."

Fred Thompson interviewed on Fox News

What is it that Larry David said from "Curb Your Enthusiasm"? "I'm completely nonplussed"



Pilfered from Hotair.com

With Fred in the race, it looks like we have all of the Spice Girls:

Mitt Romney is Posh - good looking, polished but sometimes out of his depth
Mike Huckabee is Sporty - he is into healthy lifestyles
Rudy Giuliani is Scary - in your face attitude, and I'm sure he's had paternity issues to deal with
Fred Thompson is Baby - welcome to the party
John McCain is Ginger - a cool demeanor with a hint of crazy, which makes him cool to hang out with but he missed his opportunity and he's getting long in tooth.

What about Ron Paul? He's Elvis.